EUR/CHF News & Analysis
Live updates, breaking news, and economic events affecting the euro franc exchange rate. Last updated: 12 Jun 2026, 18:51 GMT
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European Central Bank: Further rate hikes seen despite softer Oil – Nordea
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.
British Pound: Policy divergence seen weigh against Euro – Nomura
Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team, including Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi, argues that a more hawkish ECB path versus the Bank of England should support the Euro against the Pound.
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 65 bps (76% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (90% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 24 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting)Fed: 18 bps (97% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 12 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at...
European Central Bank: Hikes rates with hawkish tone – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s European economists highlight that the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% and pairing it with hawkish messaging from President Lagarde.
ECB's Kocher says rate hike was intended to help stabilize inflation, expectations
Full report hereECB's Kocher said yesterday's rate hike is intended to help stabilize inflation as the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy and commodity prices.Kocher warned that rising energy costs are weakening consumer purchasing power, discouraging investment, and increasing the risk of second-round inflation effects. However, he noted that inflation is not expected to return to the extreme levels seen in 2022–2023.He stressed that the key objective is to prevent the current e...
Latest EUR/CHF News
Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak and colleagues, notes that the ECB delivered a 25bp hike to a 2.25% depo rate and unveiled more hawkish forecasts.
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.
Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team, including Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi, argues that a more hawkish ECB path versus the Bank of England should support the Euro against the Pound.
Headlines:Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNAThe US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBGHere is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO momentIran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalisedOil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the USThe countdown continues ahead of the Wall Street open, all eyes on SpaceXECB policymaker Nagel says keeping all options open for July...
Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 65 bps (76% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (90% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 24 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting)Fed: 18 bps (97% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 12 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at...
Deutsche Bank’s European economists highlight that the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% and pairing it with hawkish messaging from President Lagarde.
Full report hereECB's Kocher said yesterday's rate hike is intended to help stabilize inflation as the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy and commodity prices.Kocher warned that rising energy costs are weakening consumer purchasing power, discouraging investment, and increasing the risk of second-round inflation effects. However, he noted that inflation is not expected to return to the extreme levels seen in 2022–2023.He stressed that the key objective is to prevent the current e...
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher stated in the European trade on Friday that it is too early to discuss what the central bank will do in the July meeting.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said during the European trade on Friday that the central bank needs to act quickly before inflation starts accelerating further.
The Euro (EUR) trades higher 0.12% higher to near 185.45 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Friday.
Full report here ECB's Dolenc said the European Central Bank’s rate hike gives policymakers enough flexibility to respond to the ongoing Middle East-driven energy shock.He emphasized that given the high uncertainty around how severe and long-lasting the energy shock may be, the current interest rate level allows the ECB to react appropriately as conditions evolve. Future rate decisions will remain data-dependent, based on inflation forecasts, inflation persistence, and how effectively monetary...
EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the final French and Spanish inflation reports. The ECB yesterday hiked interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected and kept its usual data-dependent and meeting-by meeting approach. ECB sources signalled a pause in July if oil prices do not increase materially but endorsed the market pricing by saying that two more rate hikes are embedded in the projections. AMERICAN SESSIONIn...
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes the European Central Bank sounded slightly hawkish, but investors already price in two further hikes, leaving the Euro softer after President Lagarde avoided clear guidance.
CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.9%HICP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.9%Core CPI +2.5% y/yPrior +2.3%No changes to the preliminary estimates there as German headline annual inflation is reaffirmed to show a minor drop in May. That being said, core annual inflation is seen nudging up to 2.5% and that is up from 2.3% in April.So, that will continue to keep ECB policymakers on their toes in navigating through the risks associated with the Middle East conflict. As things stand, there are gr...
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is EUR/CHF moving today?
EUR/CHF movements are primarily driven by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank (SNB), economic data releases from the Eurozone and Swiss economies (CPI, GDP, employment), and geopolitical events. Check our live news feed above for today's specific drivers.
How often is EUR/CHF news updated?
Our news feed is automatically updated every 15 minutes from trusted sources including Reuters, Bloomberg, and major forex news providers. Breaking rate alerts are generated instantly when significant moves (>0.5%) are detected.
What affects the EUR/CHF exchange rate?
Key factors include European Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate policies, economic data releases (Eurozone CPI, ECB interest rate decisions, GDP growth; Swiss CPI, SNB policy decisions, GDP, safe-haven flows), political events, trade balances, and market sentiment. Major announcements from ECB President and Governing Council members and SNB Chairman and Governing Board often trigger significant moves.