ForexLive
25 Aug 2026, 15:05 GMT
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Labor market consistent with full employmentEconomy growing at near-trend paceSharply reduced immigration should keep labor force demand in balanceConcerns about high prices are 'pervasive' among contactsCondisder disinflation the most-likely outcome based on limited additional tariffs, progress on reopening HormuzAppropriate to raise rates 'soon' in the abscence of evidence of sustained disinflationThat sounds like someone who will be advocating for rate cuts. This article was written by Adam B...
ForexLive
25 Aug 2026, 15:03 GMT
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Prior was +5Shipments +11 vs +8Services -8 vs -3 The services number is the lowest of the year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
ForexLive
25 Aug 2026, 13:10 GMT
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The US dollar is mixed and little changed to start the new trading day. USDJPY is the largest mover, rising just 0.13%. The dollar is weaker against the AUD and NZD, but stronger against the EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF and CAD.The trading ranges are narrow across the major currency pairs: EURUSD: 22 pips USDJPY: 42 pips GBPUSD: 26 pips USDCHF: 22 pips USDCAD: 26 pips AUDUSD: 26 pips NZDUSD: 20 pips The subdued price action leaves room for range extensions as North American traders enter for the day. keep...
ForexLive
25 Aug 2026, 06:22 GMT
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EUR/USD1.1725 (EUR 729.21 mn)1.1680 (EUR 799.65 mn)1.1650 (EUR 632.35 mn)USD/JPY159.00 (US$ 345.34 mn)USD/CHF0.8020 (US$ 309.47 mn)USD/CAD1.4020 (US$ 530.85 mn)1.3755 (US$ 602.32 mn)AUD/USD0.7130 (AUD 874.19 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls ...
BabyPips
25 Aug 2026, 02:24 GMT
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Markets have been buzzing about Fed rate hike odds lately, as the U.S. will be printing the central bank’s preferred inflation metric ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
ForexLive
25 Aug 2026, 00:09 GMT
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The disconnect MUFG highlights, hike odds near 80% without corresponding yen buying, points to a market that has priced in tightening ahead of any clear signal from the BOJ itself, leaving the currency vulnerable if the central bank either delivers less than expected or pushes back on the pricing. A hawkish surprise would likely be needed just to hold the yen steady, while any attempt by the BOJ to talk down the probability risks reigniting weakness at a moment when USD/JPY is already sitting ju...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 23:03 GMT
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The dollar's slide to its weakest level since May reflects a shift in the rates backdrop rather than a single catalyst, with the Treasury's expanded buyback plan adding to pressure on medium and long-term yields already primed for lower Fed expectations. HSBC's framing suggests near-term price action will stay driven by incoming data and rate pricing rather than the structural concerns building beneath the surface, meaning a September Fed hold could extend the greenback's slide. On the other sid...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 22:40 GMT
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A September hike is now close to fully priced by markets, meaning the bigger risk for the yen sits with any surprise hold rather than with the move itself. Bessent's public nudge toward higher Japanese rates adds a political dimension, effectively narrowing the space for Tokyo's pro stimulus government to resist BOJ action. If Adachi's view proves right and the tightening cycle extends toward 2% or higher through next year, that would mark a materially steeper path than the median economist fore...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 20:31 GMT
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The USDJPY is pressing against an important technical ceiling after rebounding from last week’s lows.On Wednesday and Thursday last week, the pair briefly traded below its 200-day moving average (lower green line on the chart above at 158.33 currently), but sellers could not keep the momentum. Support emerged against the swing level near 157.96, and the failure to break lower gave buyers the opportunity to push the price back toward the shorter-term moving averages.On Friday, the rebound initi...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 13:10 GMT
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The new trading week is underway with the US dollar is modestly higher with the USDCAD moving up the most with a gain of 0.57% after talks with Canada on a trade agreement fell apart. As a review, the U.S.-Canada trade talks broke down late Friday, reversing optimism that the two sides were close to a framework agreement. The U.S. moved ahead with 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada responded with dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, set to begin September 8. Disagree...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 12:53 GMT
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Full article hereAccording to CNBC, the US Treasury is considering using its Treasury General Account (TGA), the government's cash account at the Federal Reserve, currently holding nearly $1 trillion, to help finance its recently announced purchases of longer-dated Treasury bonds.Markets initially assumed the Treasury would fund the bond-buying program by issuing more short-term bills, consistent with Treasury Secretary Bessent's description of the operation as a "Treasury Twist". However, senio...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 06:26 GMT
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EUR/USD1.1680 (EUR 1.00 bn)1.1640 (EUR 1.33 bn)USD/JPY159.00 (US$ 350.12 mn)157.85 (US$ 542.01 mn)GBP/USD1.3530 (GBP 282.33 mn)USD/CHF0.8100 (US$ 300.00 mn)0.8000 (US$ 350.00 mn)USD/CAD1.3935 (US$ 304.46 mn)1.3855 (US$ 269.60 mn)1.3800 (US$ 230.00 mn)AUD/USD0.7120 (AUD 604.23 mn)EUR/GBP0.8570 (EUR 100.35 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 06:15 GMT
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The week starts off slow with no major economic events for the FX market scheduled for Monday. The following day Japan will release the BoJ core CPI y/y, while the U.S. will publish the CB consumer confidence and new home sales data. Wednesday will bring Australia's CPI data and in the U.S., the focus will shift to the core PCE price index m/m, preliminary GDP q/q, and durable goods orders m/m. The U.S. data releases will continue Thursday with the unemployment claims and the day will also mark ...
ForexLive
24 Aug 2026, 05:18 GMT
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EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda today, with markets likely consolidating or extending the trends started with the Treasury buyback. The most important event this week will be Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only notable event is US Treasury Secretary Bessent's press conference at 2 pm ET where he's expected to unveil the 'toughest' sanctions in history against Iran. I thin...
ForexLive
23 Aug 2026, 22:10 GMT
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Kashkari's comments push back against any narrative that surging long-end yields reflect market dysfunction, which should ease some of the term premium anxiety that has crept into rates trading in recent sessions. With the 10-year sitting near 4.73% and the 30-year close to its highest level since 2007, the message that liquidity remains intact is likely to matter more to fixed income desks than the yield level itself. His continued inflation concerns, without a firm commitment to push for a Sep...